
Two games remain in the Fishers Freight’s season, spread across the schedule’s final three weeks, and the math is simple to state and hard to pull off: win, and keep winning.
At 7-7, the Freight sit fifth in a seven-team Eastern Conference where the top four advance. Green Bay (12-2) and Jacksonville (9-4) have already clinched. That leaves two playoff spots and four teams still chasing them — Tulsa (8-5), Orlando (8-6), Fishers (7-7) and long-shot Quad City (5-8).
Here’s the good news for Freight fans: Fishers control their own fate. They play at Quad City on July 11, sit out a bye during Week 19, then host Orlando on July 26 in what amounts to a play-in game. Beat both, and the Freight finish 9-7. Beat Orlando head-to-head, and the Pirates can climb no higher than a tie with them.
So the obvious question: does winning out guarantee a playoff berth? Almost — but not quite.
At 9-7, the only team that can finish with a better record is Tulsa, which has three games left (Jacksonville, then Quad City twice). Orlando, having just lost to Fishers in that scenario, could only tie the Freight at 9-7. Quad City, if it loses to Fishers on July 11, tops out at 8-8 and falls away. In the large majority of outcomes, 9-7 is comfortably good enough for third or fourth.
The lone escape hatch: a tiebreaker logjam. If Orlando beats San Antonio on July 11 to reach 9-7, and Tulsa wins at least two of its final three to pass the Freight, Fishers could be squeezed into a tiebreaker for the final seed despite winning out. It’s a narrow path — and one Fishers can’t fully control — but it’s why “win and you’re in” comes with an asterisk.
Everything else is worse. Split the two games and the Freight land at 8-8, needing significant help and likely on the outside. Lose to Quad City on July 11 and even a season-ending win over Orlando gets them only to 8-8 — probably not enough. Lose both and they’re done.
The cleanest path is also the most demanding: two wins. Step one is the trap game at Quad City, a team Fishers already beat 45-27 in the March opener. Step two is the home finale against the Pirates, who edged the Freight 60-57 back in May and will arrive with a playoff spot of their own on the line.
Freight fans should also scoreboard-watch Tulsa. Every Oilers loss — starting with their July 11 home date against Jacksonville — widens Fishers’ margin for error.
Two games. One realistic route. The Freight don’t need a miracle, a calculator or a lucky bounce elsewhere in the conference. They need to take care of business twice, starting in Moline. Win both, and they’ll almost certainly be playing in August for the first time in franchise history.