I was skeptical that the Chicago Bears would ever build their stadium in Hammond. The latest developments give that skepticism more weight.

Indiana’s problem from the beginning was straightforward: Its offer could help the Bears secure better terms in Illinois without requiring them to leave.

Consider what the team already owned. In February 2023, the Bears bought 326 acres in Arlington Heights for $197.2 million. That purchase did not guarantee a stadium, but it gave the franchise a substantial Illinois alternative long before Hammond entered the picture.

Then consider the gap between Indiana’s enthusiasm and the Bears’ actual commitment. When Hoosier officials celebrated their proposed stadium arrangement in February, the team’s statement remained conditional on further site investigation. Gov. Mike Braun likewise acknowledged that completing an agreement depended on that work. The publicity ran ahead of the certainty.

The strongest argument against my skepticism came in June, when the Bears’ board voted to advance the Hammond project. That was a meaningful action. Still, the team had not selected an exact site. Advancing a project left important decisions unresolved.

The Kansas City Chiefs’ planned move from Missouri to Kansas made an interstate switch seem more plausible. Their December 2025 announcement included a $3 billion stadium, a 2031 opening target and financing split 60% public and 40% private. It demonstrated that state borders are negotiable when stadium money is involved. It could not establish that Hammond would prevail in a separate negotiation.

Meanwhile, Illinois never disappeared. Emails obtained by Capitol News Illinois documented August discussions involving the Bears’ stadium executive and minority owner Pat Ryan. On Oct. 1, Ryan and NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell met with Gov. JB Pritzker and legislative leaders about keeping the team in Illinois.

By Oct. 31, the Chicago Sun-Times reported Pritzker’s assessment that negotiators were closer than ever to an Illinois agreement. That remains short of a completed deal.

None of this proves Hammond was a bluff. A credible alternative can be both a genuine possibility and a powerful bargaining tool.

But it explains why Indiana’s plan may have been doomed from the start: Its greatest value to the Bears may always have been the pressure it placed on Illinois. Hoosier officials could offer a stadium framework. They could not prevent Illinois from responding.